"Climate science lacks scientific discipline." So writes Ian Plimer, Australia's most respected geologist, and author of the book Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science. Science, Plimer says, is based on evidence, and not on computer models, which have
Insurance modelers did not factor in two Boeing 767 jets destroying the World Trade Center... Natural systems are far more complexalready been proven to be grossly inaccurate in predicting the temperatures for even the first few years of the 21st century. Science, he says, is based on evidence, not on concensus.
The claim by some scientists that the threat of human-induced global warming is 90% certain (or even 99%) is a figure of speech reflecting the speaker's commitment to belief. It is comparable to 100% certainty professed by religious devotees that theirs is the one and only true faith.The theory of significant human-induced global warming is now on wobbly legs, as Plimer reminds us that more and more evidence mounts against it. As the evidence mounts, fear tactics increase to compensate; in the face of truth, grimmer and grimmer scenarios of future climate cataclysm are tossed upon the media airwaves, while the actual science is increasingly ignored.
One of the two largest contributors to misunderstanding about global warming (besides the conflation of human opinion with scientific fact) is computer modeling. Plimer says
It is very easy for the modeler to produce the predestined outcome before the model can be run. Models are not evidence. All a model shows is something about the model itself and the modelers. Data collection in science is derived from observation, measurement, and experiment, not from modelling. We can't make nature conform to virtual computer models. ...nearly two dozen climate models exaggerate the effects of CO2. Insurance modelers did not factor in two Boeing 767 jets destroying the World Trade Center... Natural systems are far more complex, and it is naive to think that a model can predict future events on earth.While models to not "observe" anything, there are a plethora of ways to observe current global warming, as well as its historical effects. Observation of such things as lake and ocean sediments, ice cores, pollen, tree rings, stalagmites, and historical records are much more helpful than the most sophisticated computer model.
In 1896, chemist Svante Arrhenius postulated that if CO2 in the atmosphere were to double, the temperature would rise by 5 degrees Celsius. He has since been proven wrong, but his theory of over 100 years ago still informs many of the computer models which incorrectly predict that man's activities are causing us to bake in our own juices.
In order to understand how the earth warms and cools, a variety of sciences must be understood. We need to understand much more than just CO2, which makes a nearly infinitesimally small contribution to global warming. To give you some idea of how complex global warming really is, Ian Plimer writes
The history of temperature change over time is related to the shape of continents, the shape of the sea floor, the pulling apart of the crust, the stitching back together of the crust, the opening and closing of the seaways, changes to the Earth's orbit, changes in solar energy, supernova eruptions, comet dust......and I'm barely half done with the list that Plimer provides. Plimer concludes
If we humans, in a fit of ego, think we can change these normal planetary processes, then we need stronger medication.Pollution is what we should really be worried about, but we're controlling pollution with greater and greater success. Catalytic converters helped reduce pollution markedly through their conversion of 95% of things like nitric oxide and sulphur dioxide to H2O (water). Smog is still a problem in the world, however, but only in the less-developed part of the world (i.e. that part of the world that has been less influenced by the free market). China suffers the "Asian Brown Cloud", which sometimes affects North America. Humans have made great technological strides in controlling pollution, which strides would not have been made if government had been in control of the research into the potential of these technologies.
Before you had read this article, were your nerves frazzled because you were convinced that the earth would fry before the year 2050? Hopefully you're inhaling and exhaling normally now, because real scientists know that there is nothing that man is doing--or can do--to cause you any worry about global warming.